Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 59.501543 66.423789 74.330425 84.148075 96.183691 110.696181 129.906848
2025-02-02 51.804068 61.118941 72.795839 88.982232 111.688935 143.935405 196.595990
2025-02-09 46.208778 56.359075 69.837929 89.930148 120.959565 171.074387 269.941062
2025-02-16 41.728296 52.069267 66.367425 88.845131 126.240725 193.501656 352.158455
2025-02-23 38.200822 48.503091 63.199543 87.305630 129.981490 214.476429 452.940127
2025-03-02 35.175772 45.255383 59.983363 84.963576 131.492489 231.611610 568.067937
2025-03-09 32.903563 42.842735 57.688904 83.672991 134.515115 253.639542 743.600810
2025-03-16 30.415601 39.887322 54.223672 79.801594 131.418645 259.309099 869.717881
2025-03-23 29.832537 39.723605 55.127058 83.792011 145.838089 321.751127 1616.631404
2025-03-30 28.439215 38.194747 53.635119 83.081744 149.570647 355.277607 2536.686049
2025-04-06 27.049919 36.570718 51.830589 81.501560 150.827048 381.880088 4035.456720
2025-04-13 25.449873 34.517004 49.138047 77.835226 146.026511 382.123138 5191.938366
2025-04-20 25.211801 34.660696 50.299097 82.278947 164.266468 505.494176 127832.303759
2025-04-27 24.968293 34.779439 51.436798 86.937481 185.572386 698.231736 NaN
2025-05-04 24.229132 34.021207 50.909382 87.851016 196.061591 859.881883 NaN
2025-05-11 23.308700 32.899669 49.611829 86.805231 199.758083 984.458927 NaN
2025-05-18 22.411768 31.767843 48.208006 85.320935 201.510563 1105.498289 NaN
2025-05-25 21.493338 30.553361 46.564188 83.061811 199.768493 1187.360796 NaN
2025-06-01 20.756701 29.616780 45.391485 81.816376 201.643401 1345.412577 NaN
2025-06-08 19.790334 28.242740 43.296748 78.078054 192.648936 1292.634351 NaN
2025-06-15 19.709948 28.402623 44.189383 81.931249 216.348863 2125.951379 NaN
2025-06-22 19.161015 27.711943 43.355466 81.245684 220.421319 2604.886454 NaN
2025-06-29 18.562259 26.908346 42.249041 79.720026 220.173815 2978.762691 NaN